A possible solution to the Venezuela situation

Things are reaching a boiling point in Venezuela. 

As opposed to taking on the Russians for attacking an American election. https://t.co/lZhNXIqAW4

What is at stake for Russia in Venezuela?

Russia could lose a lot if Nicolas Maduro is ousted in Venezuela. Moscow's massive loans to Caracas are only one piece of the puzzle — Venezuelan oil reserves could bring down the price of oil and upset Russia's economy.

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The situation appears to be more complicated when it comes to loans that Russia approved to Venezuela for buying Russian arms. According to Russian media, Moscow has transferred some $11 billion to Caracas for this purpose in the last two decades. It is not clear how much of that sum has been repaid. However, there are reports that Moscow is restructuring Venezuela's debts under favorable conditions.

It could be that Pompeo’s aggressive stand against Maduro is a way to “prove” he is not aligned with Putin.  It could be that tRump wants to create another “national emergency” situation to distract from Mueller’s investigation.  It could be that the fossil fuel mafia wants the largest oil reserves in the world.  It could be that the right wants to prove that socialism is not good.  (IMO Maduro is only a power hungry dictator rather than a socialist.  BTW I consider myself a “progressive capitalist”).

The Europeans seem to have given Maduro 2 weeks to conduct new elections but Venezuela’s Maduro rejects EU call for new election. And many Latin American countries who have recognized Guaidó.  Certainly Cuba supports Maduro too, specially since tRump reversed the rapprochement started by Obama. Some countries in the Middle East also do. The UN Security Council is all over the place;

The top UN political official told the Security Council on Saturday that dialogue and cooperation were vital to ending the crisis in Venezuela, but during a contentious debate, Council members disagreed over the appropriate response to mass protests in the South American country and competing claims to the presidency.

Can a peaceful, fair and democratic solution be reached? 

Mexico, Uruguay and the Vatican think so.  

They propose negotiations. 

Laying out its position, Uruguay's Foreign Ministry released a statement Wednesday saying its government and Mexico's, led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, were proposing a "new process of inclusive and credible negotiations with full respect for the rule of law and human rights" to resolve the dispute peacefully.

Both nations urged other parties, both inside and outside of Venezuela, to follow suit.

This is an interesting perspective;

Uruguay vice president compares Venezuelan crisis with that of Libya

The vice president of Uruguay, Lucia Topolansky, said on Friday that her country “does well to be cautious” in the international position the country has assumed in the institutional and political crisis that Venezuela is going through since, in its consideration, the external pressure for Nicolás Maduro to resign responds to imperial interests that recall cases of foreign interference in the Middle East.

The situation in Venezuela is catastrophic.  Over 3 million Venezuelans have left the country. Imagine 30 million Americans left the US relatively speaking.

I know more about Venezuela than I will admit.  I’ve done significant business there. Venezuela is the only country in the world where I technically escaped from jail and I was almost murdered.  It has always been a very very corrupt country (not a banana republic, rather an “oil republic”, oil corrupts to say the least.)  Remember that Chavez, Maduro’s mentor, praised the cruel dictator Perez Jimenez;

On April 25, 2010, former President Hugo Chávez commented on his program Aló Presidente: "I think that General Pérez Jiménez was the best president that Venezuela had in a long time. (...) It was better than Rómulo Betancourt, it was better I'm not going to name them (...) They hated him because he was a soldier. " 

Maduro is a horrible dictator but he has the support of the very corrupt Venezuelan military that has the support of Russia and the support of a large portion of the Venezuelan electorate.  WW III could easily start in Venezuela. Putin may be done with tRump, he got a lot more than he paid for already.

Maduro has to go.  Guaidó may be the next president, but the key is a peaceful transition rather than a war whether civil, regional or global.

My hope is that enough countries realize all this and support Mexico, Uruguay and the Vatican to have a peaceful transition that allows Maduro to save face and have fair and democratic elections, perhaps monitored by the UN, that can set the stage for a prosperous and free Venezuela.